Good question! Probably, it will be a fairly obvious change in Fed direction, similar to the easing stance that began in late 2019 and intensified in early 2020. Alternately, it might be a general sense of "let's get out of here!" that spreads from Japan and Europe, even without much change in Fed stance. But, I think the former is more likely for now. If recessionary conditions are confirmed, they will have a hard time maintaining their fairly hawkish present stance I think.
Nathan,
What should we watch to indicate that the US dollar may be weakening and we should consider buying gold?
Good question! Probably, it will be a fairly obvious change in Fed direction, similar to the easing stance that began in late 2019 and intensified in early 2020. Alternately, it might be a general sense of "let's get out of here!" that spreads from Japan and Europe, even without much change in Fed stance. But, I think the former is more likely for now. If recessionary conditions are confirmed, they will have a hard time maintaining their fairly hawkish present stance I think.